Convenience (not savings) is the trojan horse for "smart" appliances

There is an alternate reality somewhere in which customers pay the constantly-changing spot price for electricity, smart appliances adjust load to maximize savings under varying realtime conditions, and legions of economists dance the happiest dance that economists are permitted. In our reality, regulators and customers are profoundly ambivalent about even simple pricing experiments like time of use metering, and the use case for consumer load shifting is mostly limited to electric vehicle charging. While stubbornly flat electricity rate plans will disadvantage the demand for smart appliances for the foreseeable future, at least one barrier fell recently: standardization.

Marvell's SEP 2.0-compliant thermostat

With the release of Smart Energy Profile 2.0, there is now a common language for manufacturers to provide functionality for startup, shutdown, monitoring, standby, and other functions. While this is valuable for utility planners, it's harder to make the case that consumers should care. The more affluent consumers who will be able to afford the first generation of smart appliances aren't going to be swayed by a $10 bill credit. They will, however, enjoy the ability to power up their vacation home from their smartphone as they drive so that it is warm and lit-up upon arrival.

An open standard will enable a rich and interoperable ecosystem of third party applications to talk to any device from any manufacturer. Bluetooth's "remote control profile" (AVRCP) enables users to pair a Bose speaker with an Apple iPod. Similarly, the stalled and heavily-siloed home automation controller market could find new opportunities in coordinating a a Nest thermostat and Phillips Hue lights from one place. Getting manufacturers to implement the standard may take some time, but convenience and lifestyle applications will provide more near-term possibilities than the utility's ability to change your air conditioner setpoints on a hot day.

Is this a way out of the chicken-and-egg logjam of device availability and rate plan introduction? I don't see any others on the horizon.

Know Thyself, With Data (Will Analytics Save us All?)

While it's tempting to focus on technology and economics, privacy and cybersecurity are probably the major blocking issues in the way of mass smart grid adoption today. These are serious issues and must be addressed, but let's remember that the flip side of privacy is data. From properly-anonymized data, we can progress through analysis, insight, and action. EnergyHub just released a fascinating report of state-by-state winter heating thermostat setpoints. It's easy to explain freezing New Englanders with "flinty reserve" or "Yankee frugality", but the greater savings realizable with a lower setpoint are probably a stronger explanation. (I'm most interested in why neighbors Iowa and Nebraska have a 4 degree differential.)

Fun as this trivial example is, it points to a heretofore nonexistent link in energy management. Any campaign for energy efficiency is going to find it hard to establish metrics and efficacy if the only feedback mechanism is monthly bills. As we move toward a (privacy-respecting, aggregate) view of energy use patterns, we will have the ability to know what works and what doesn't. That's ultimately much more interesting than just knowing that Vermonters own a lot of flannel.